Introduction

Next week, the Zambian electorate will decide who is to be the next President of the Republic of Zambia. Two men have emerged as the clear front runners: Levy Patrick Mwanawasa, the incumbent, and Michael Chilufya Sata, one of the challengers. One of these two men will be elected President next Thursday.

The conventional wisdom holds that elections should be fought (and won) on the basis of the issues and not personalities. I'm not convinced that this view is entirely justified, particularly in our current political context where it is difficult if not impossible to separate the "issues" from the "personalities". More often than not, the personality is the issue.

In more politically advanced countries, commentators and voters can, for the most part, safely dwell on the issues. Unless, that is, the personality or character of a political leader itself becomes the issue. This is not unheard of even in those highly developed political systems: Bill Clinton and his extra-curricular activities during his time in office, springs to mind as an obvious example. Clinton himself became the issue. During his first campaign for the US presidency, George W. Bush, the Republican candidate, repeatedly said he wanted to restore dignity to the Oval Office. Of course, he never really said anything beyond that, but the implication of his statement was clear to anyone capable of adding two and two: Mr. Clinton, and by association any other Democratic politician, did not have the moral character and integrity to occupy the Oval Office. Even so, Mr. Bush and his eventual opponent, Al Gore, did go toe to toe on various issues.

Zambian politics, by contrast, can be characterised as a political game of musical chairs, with politicians frequently switching political allegiances at dizzying pace in search of political glory. The current election scenario illustrates this vividly. Virtually all of the politicians offering themselves for election to the Zambian electorate have at one time or another been in political marriages of convenience with each other. And then divorced and remarried, and divorced and remarried... ad infinitum/ad nauseam (take your pick). Some are "single" (independent candidates), but delve into their political marital history and you will discover the same trend.

The point is: the issues frequently take a back seat to the personalities in Zambian politics. At best, the issues and personalities are inextricably entwined. It is a sad and unavoidable fact.

I said all that by way of introduction for the following reason: in analysing the PF manifesto I will inevitably have to raise some issues of personality and character, particularly in relation to the PF president, Mr. Sata.

The policies and personalities of the current government are known to all Zambians. President Mwanawasa and his government have been in the public eye, every day of the week, for the past five years. We don't have to guess what their policies will be. President Mwanawasa and his party have made it clear that they wish to continue and complete the work they began five years ago.

However, the same cannot be said of his main challenger. We do not know what the policies of PF would be apart from the indications they give us in this manifesto and at their political rallies. And so to the manifesto we must turn.

The PF Manifesto

(For those who may be interested to read the PF manifesto for themselves, it is available online at http://www.pf.com.zm/manifesto.html.)

The cover page of the manifesto bears the PF logo: a boat, a canoe to be precise, being paddled by two men. The boat is laden with goods—of what sort exactly we cannot tell. A bird, a dove perhaps, with a twig in its beak, is shown flying towards the boat. The parallels with the story of Noah and his Ark are obvious enough, I suppose. Beneath the image is the PF slogan: Vote Patriotic Front for Lower Taxes, More Jobs and More Money in Your Pockets.

There it is then, that's the deal in a nutshell: PF's policies are aimed at lowering taxes, creating jobs and increasing individual prosperity.

Mr. Sata begins his foreword to the manifesto as follows:

"The 2006 elections give us an opportunity to make right all that went wrong before the 2001 elections and indeed all that has since gone wrong since the fraudulent 2001 elections, which produced a government with a with a highly questionable mandate."

This is a very revealing statement on at least two scores:
• Firstly, Mr. Sata acknowledges there was a lot that went wrong before 2001. What he does not acknowledge, and as far as I'm aware, has never acknowledged, is his own complicity and participation in those mistakes and misdeeds. He was a prominent politician during both the Kaunda administration and the Chiluba administration. Indeed, for a number of years prior to 2001, he was, for all practical purposes, the second most powerful man in the country, as Mr. Chiluba's Minister without Portfolio.
• Secondly, Mr. Sata claims that the 2001 elections were fraudulent. There's nothing unusual about that claim in itself—many Zambians share the same belief. What is astonishing, however, is that Mr. Sata has openly welcomed the support of those suspected of being behind the 2001 electoral fraud: chief among them, the former President Frederick Chiluba and his head of intelligence, Xavier Chungu. Mr. Sata has publicly stated that he will discontinue any ongoing corruption cases against Mr. Chiluba and Mr. Chungu, whilst on the other hand continuing to call Mr. Mwanawasa's presidency the product of corruption. It appears, Mr. Sata is not overly concerned with the producers of that electrocal corruption, only with the fact he was not the beneficiary.

So, does the manifesto proper offer any credible policies for the achievement of PF's stated objectives of lower taxes, job creation and prosperity?

After studying the manifesto carefully, my personal conclusion is that it does not. What the PF manifesto amounts to is, in effect, a long wish list with little or no substantive detail as to how any of those wishes will be realised. Worse, the manifesto does not explain which policies would be prioritised. This is a critical flaw as the manifesto covers some 25 major areas of policy. The manifesto effectively tries to be all things to all people and sectors, a sheer impossibility given the limited resources that are available to any government on planet earth, let alone one in a poor country such as ours.

This weakness is mirrored in the campaign that PF, and Mr. Sata particularly, has adopted, namely, the practice of making extravagant and unworkable promises to various constituencies around the country. Let me present one example to illustrate my case. There is a great demand for tertiary education in Zambia as evidenced by the extremely high competition for virtually all available university and college places. Every year thousands of candidates lose out despite being suitably qualified. Mr. Sata's proposed solution? He has promised all such candidates that his administration will abolish all entrance requirements for university and college admission. (Interestingly, this policy is not in the PF manifesto.) And this without so much as consulting any of the various parties that would be affected by such a policy, e.g., the universities and colleges themselves.

Now which parents wouldn't want their children to be guaranteed a university or college education? Mr. Sata's "solution" does not in any way address the underlying problem, which is one of capacity: there simply are not enough university and college places to go round. This lack of capacity is in turn caused by other upstream factors. Merely abolishing entrance requirements will not solve these fundamental problems. I find it incredible, i.e., not credible, that a man who prides himself on his common sense and practicality would be seriously advocating such a "solution". Therefore, I am forced to conclude that he's saying it merely to win votes, to scratch the ears of parents itching to hear that their children will get the tertiary education they deserve.

Another serious flaw in the PF manifesto is that it does not contain any financial figures at all. There is no analysis of the budgets of previous and current governments. There are no proposed PF budgets and plans to cover the five-year period of government. There is no indication of any thinking on how to raise the enormous sums of money that would be required to pursue the various policies, nor indeed are there any forecasts of income and expenditure. This makes it extremely difficult for any voter, any thinking voter that is, to take any of PF's policies and promises seriously.

In fairness, I should also point out that I found a number of PF's policies very agreeable indeed. More on that in the following section.

Highlights/Lowlights from the PF Manifesto

I shall not attempt to dissect every single issue discussed in PF's manifesto. Rather, I shall present some representative highlights and lowlights.

1. Legal and Constitutional Reforms

PF pledges to uphold the rule of law, human rights and social justice. Specifically, PF undertakes to de-politicise and decentralise the Zambian justice system, for instance by separating the offices of Attorney General and Minister of Justice and establishing magistrates' courts at all provincial headquarters. It also promises to adopt and enact the Mungomba draft constitution by constituent assembly. If Mr. Sata's recent remarks about discontinuing the work of the Special Task Force on Corruption are anything to go by, this is empty rhetoric. PF would undoubtedly offer in their defence, a statement contained in the section on PF policy on the Drug Enforcement Commission (DEC) and the Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC), to the effect that the PF government seeks to strengthen existing institutions within the legal framework and desist from creating ad hoc bodies (such as the Special Task Force on Corruption, presumably). It is interesting to note, however, that the same section states that under PF the DEC and ACC "shall have power to investigate, arrest, and prosecute without reference to any other authority." [Emphasis mine]. Clearly, any moves to stop the current prosecution of Messrs. Chiluba and Chungu would be tantamount to just that. A Sata administration could well see unprecedented political interference in the justice system.

2. Education

PF pledges to among other things:
• Increase spending on education.
• Re-introduce free and compulsory primary education for all (that is from grade one to grade seven).
• Make it an offence for a parent who deliberately fails to send a child of school-going age to school.
• Conduct a comprehensive revision exercise to align curricula with the needs of the labour market and to develop life long skills in students.
• Phase out the current bursary scheme and in its place develop guaranteed student loans for all Zambian students admitted into tertiary institutions and recover the loans through a tracking system.
• Provide for direct and adequate funding of public universities from the national treasury (i.e., to provide improved conditions of service for all workers and expanded student accommodation).

There isn't much to quarrel with here in terms of the nobility of the objectives. The problem is how is all of this to be funded? And how sustainable are these policies in the longer term?

3. Local Government

Judging by the size of the section on it, local government policy should be one of PF's flagship policies. PF aims to decentralised power from central to local government. Three eye-catching policies are:
• Transfer the distribution of electricity from ZESCO to local government authorities
• Transfer responsibility for land allocation from the Commissioner of Lands to the councils.
• A comprehensive housing development programme which would result in the development of new housing estates with all the necessary amenities and facilities in all towns and cities. These estates will provide decent, low-cost housing to people who are currently resident in squatter settlements.

The implications of the first policy are far-reaching, although it is unclear precisely how this would be implemented. Further, there are some deep technical issues that would have to be clarified since, currently, ZESCO handles all three aspects of the electricity supply industry, namely, generation, transmission and distribution. Would PF's policy entail the privatisation of electricity distribution to private local companies under local government supervision? Or would the distribution companies be owned and operated by local governments? The policy is very long on scope and very short on detail.

The second policy would, again, represent a seismic shift from the status quo. The issue of land in Zambia is fraught with corrupt activities, a fact that was acknowledged by President Mwanawasa earlier this year. In fact, he labelled it the most corrupt ministry in his government. So, any moves to bring sanity and integrity to this area would be most welcome. Ideally, this policy of decentralisation should be taken even further, right down to the level of the individual with a genuine freehold system of land tenure. However, PF's current proposal could possibly result in a shift from centralised corruption to decentralised corruption.

The third policy is one for which PF has gained fame from its supporters and notoriety from its detractors. Mr. Sata has (in)famously promised to achieve this feat within 90 days of his election, a plainly absurd assertion. Once again, it beggars belief that a man of Mr. Sata's undoubted intelligence and practicality could possibly believe what is coming out of his own mouth. The unfortunate conclusion is that the man is a pathological liar who will literally say anything to get elected. Sadly, a significant number of Zambia's electorate seem to believe him.

4. Community Development and Social Welfare

This is the arena for yet more incredible promises from PF, such as the following:
• Generally expand programmes in this area and increasing expenditure accordingly
• Provide a monthly social pension for all those aged 65 years and above.
• Provide early childhood (pre-school) educational facilities and teachers in all primary schools.
• And so forth.

All very fine and noble wishes of course, but the PF manifesto is manifestly mute on details of precisely how this would be funded, achieved and sustained.

I trust I have made my point. The manifesto applies a similar approach to the many other areas of policy: increase government intervention and spending for the benefit of the people. Mr. Sata has been repeatedly called a populist. A populist is formally defined as a believer in the rights, wisdom, or virtues of the common people. Certainly, Mr. Sata has presented himself as such. Certainly, the PF manifesto presents the party as such.

What common and uncommon people alike, however you wish to define them, need to ask themselves is whether this is really true. Could it be that Mr. Sata is in fact the exact opposite? Namely, an ultra-individualist formally defined in this case as a believer in the rights, wisdom and virtues of the individual. Not the individual in the generic sense, you understand. No, rather the individual in one specific sense: Michael Chilufya Sata.